Day 108
I wouldn't be faithful to the spirit of internet blogging if I didn't do at least one entry predicting who I think will win the presidency come november in the USA.
I am absolutely positive the democratic nominee will be Obama. He will beat Hillary without any trouble; he simply is too far ahead with the delegates, and has too much money and influential support. I suspect the lady will bow out after the next batch of primaries.
Hillary will not be his vice president pick. She's in the race, I can only presume, because she wants to stay prominent for some reason other than getting the nomination (because that isn't really a viable possibility anymore), but she won't get the VP spot. The reason: the VP nomination always goes to whichever figure best offers a counterpoint to the presidential nominee; someone who fills the biggest gaps in terms of demographic appeal. Obama already has the female vote sealed, and he's also got all the idealists. What he doesn't have is a particularly strong record of experience, especially with respect to foreign travel and policy, military experience, that sort of thing. This is also where republicans have their strongest selling point in McCain.
Therefore, Obama will pick a man, who is older, and who is very experienced in the political realm. I'd guess Joe Biden, or (my personal favorite) Bill Richardson. Who knows, maybe even Al Gore. This will balance the ticket for the Democrats, and pick up as many votes as possible.
McCain will pick a VP nominee who is much more conservative than he is. Evangelical votes come out in droves as long as they have a gun waving bible thumper to vote for. McCain needs someone who has spent decades treating gay marriage and creationism like the most important issues facing the country. McCain needs a running mate who defines himself in terms of his religion. Someone like this will regain the republican allies McCain doesn't really have due to his relatively moderate political stances; people like radio hosts, religious leaders, conservative pundits, authors, bloggers, and so forth. I'm going to guess Romney. Maybe Huckabee. But probably Romney.
Nader is running again, but he will not be a "spoiler" this time around.
So who will win?
Obama. By a Landslide. I wouldn't be the least bit surprized if he captured 60% of the popular vote, and a massive majority of the electorate.
The reason: there is just no way a republican will win again. two or three months into the real campaign Obama will skyrocket into the lead, and McCain will be left in the dust, painted as an old timer who represents more-of-the-same military and economic policies. Obama has a way of brushing criticisms and smears aside that I believe will serve him extremely well as his campaign progresses. His debate skill makes Hillary look like an old formula much of the time, and I imagine he will do the same to McCain come time for the three national debates.
And deep down, in the hearts of the Republican stalwarts, I believe this knowledge pervades. McCain is the noblest of martyrs: he has fought to become the face of a broken and incompetent party, whose eight years of control over all three branches of Government have left the nation in great ruin. The man believes in his party's ideals; he believes that in 4, 8 or 10 years it will regain power, but that in the mean time the best the machine can hope for is an honest and moderate voice, as it is defeated soundly.
McCain is a very old man, in the sunset of his career as a public figure. He is a good soldier, and a good storyteller. I believe that in spite of losing by an embarrassing margin, he will assist his party in bringing back an image of rationality rather than blind ideology.
So, that is how I think the story will play out, and I do believe in McCain's memoirs (that surely will be written after 2009), he may confess the very same truths.
I am absolutely positive the democratic nominee will be Obama. He will beat Hillary without any trouble; he simply is too far ahead with the delegates, and has too much money and influential support. I suspect the lady will bow out after the next batch of primaries.
Hillary will not be his vice president pick. She's in the race, I can only presume, because she wants to stay prominent for some reason other than getting the nomination (because that isn't really a viable possibility anymore), but she won't get the VP spot. The reason: the VP nomination always goes to whichever figure best offers a counterpoint to the presidential nominee; someone who fills the biggest gaps in terms of demographic appeal. Obama already has the female vote sealed, and he's also got all the idealists. What he doesn't have is a particularly strong record of experience, especially with respect to foreign travel and policy, military experience, that sort of thing. This is also where republicans have their strongest selling point in McCain.
Therefore, Obama will pick a man, who is older, and who is very experienced in the political realm. I'd guess Joe Biden, or (my personal favorite) Bill Richardson. Who knows, maybe even Al Gore. This will balance the ticket for the Democrats, and pick up as many votes as possible.
McCain will pick a VP nominee who is much more conservative than he is. Evangelical votes come out in droves as long as they have a gun waving bible thumper to vote for. McCain needs someone who has spent decades treating gay marriage and creationism like the most important issues facing the country. McCain needs a running mate who defines himself in terms of his religion. Someone like this will regain the republican allies McCain doesn't really have due to his relatively moderate political stances; people like radio hosts, religious leaders, conservative pundits, authors, bloggers, and so forth. I'm going to guess Romney. Maybe Huckabee. But probably Romney.
Nader is running again, but he will not be a "spoiler" this time around.
So who will win?
Obama. By a Landslide. I wouldn't be the least bit surprized if he captured 60% of the popular vote, and a massive majority of the electorate.
The reason: there is just no way a republican will win again. two or three months into the real campaign Obama will skyrocket into the lead, and McCain will be left in the dust, painted as an old timer who represents more-of-the-same military and economic policies. Obama has a way of brushing criticisms and smears aside that I believe will serve him extremely well as his campaign progresses. His debate skill makes Hillary look like an old formula much of the time, and I imagine he will do the same to McCain come time for the three national debates.
And deep down, in the hearts of the Republican stalwarts, I believe this knowledge pervades. McCain is the noblest of martyrs: he has fought to become the face of a broken and incompetent party, whose eight years of control over all three branches of Government have left the nation in great ruin. The man believes in his party's ideals; he believes that in 4, 8 or 10 years it will regain power, but that in the mean time the best the machine can hope for is an honest and moderate voice, as it is defeated soundly.
McCain is a very old man, in the sunset of his career as a public figure. He is a good soldier, and a good storyteller. I believe that in spite of losing by an embarrassing margin, he will assist his party in bringing back an image of rationality rather than blind ideology.
So, that is how I think the story will play out, and I do believe in McCain's memoirs (that surely will be written after 2009), he may confess the very same truths.
Comments
The racism prevalent within the Southern states would lead one to believe that more will choose to vote for McCain if Hilary is not made the democrat's nomination. I think that while the points you wrote are very valid, they leave out the important message that most American voters do not assosicate Bush's ignorance with the republican party, and will assume that with McCain comes the change they are after without necessarily moving more left, or /black/, on the political spectrum.
I feel your idealism on this matter stems from being born and raised in a very white city, where people actually fear being labelled as a racist, whereas most places in the U.S are quite the contrary, and the basis of skin colour is still a much more important factor to the average U.S voter than who will choose which VP, what their foreign policy is and so on.
I have been watching the U.S presidential race quite closely and I do not see how Obama could possibly win, less he, as VP, takes over for a soon-to-be deceased McCain, who in Vicky's humble opinion is far too old to be running for president anyway.
All the polls have been indicating the Obama can win. I find this interesting given racist trends, but such is the case. Keep in mind that the win only requires 50% + 1 of the electoral college, and I'm running under the assumption that since a sizable majority of people would rather have an upturned broom for a president than another republican administration, they'll not really care about Obama's race. Most democratic votes aren't going to preclude anyone based on race anyway, and those are his constituents.
Time shall tell.